A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
